Market Pulse: November 25, 2025 – Fed Cuts Fuel Risk-On Rally as Dollar Dips and Crypto Edges Higher
Hey traders and market watchers! It's been another holiday-shortened session packed with Fed-fueled fireworks on November 25, 2025. With the Thanksgiving hangover still lingering, stocks shrugged off early jitters to post solid gains, while the dollar slipped below 100 amid dovish chatter from Fed heavyweights like Christopher Waller and John Williams. Rate-cut odds for December now sit at a comfy 80%+, boosting everything from tech to crypto. But energy lagged as oil prices tumbled on demand worries. Let's dissect the action across DXY, Gold, USOil, NAS100, US30, Ethereum, and Bitcoin – with sniper-sharp insights to keep your edge sharp.
DXY: Dollar's Doveish Dip
The greenback couldn't hold the psychological 100 line today, closing at 99.79 after a -0.36% slide. Fed speakers piled on the rate-cut rhetoric, with Waller backing another 25bps trim and Williams echoing the dovish chorus. This flipped sentiment from hawkish to "easy money ahead," pressuring the DXY toward 99 support. Intraday, it spiked to 100.20 on fleeting risk-off vibes but got rejected hard.
Sniper Insight: Bearish bias short-term – watch 99 as pivot; break it and 98.50 opens up. Monthly strength (+1.02%) says this is a tactical pullback, not a trend flip. Pairs like EURUSD loved it, popping +0.4%.
Gold (XAUUSD): Steady Safe-Haven Grind
Gold inched up 0.07% to $4,138.45, shrugging off lighter volume to test $4,145 highs. The USD's stumble was the clear catalyst, with weaker consumer data adding fuel to the "recession hedge" fire. YTD, it's a monster +57%, but today's action was more consolidation than fireworks – a classic retest of the 50-day SMA.
Sniper Insight: Bullish above $4,130; Fibonacci confluence at $4,200 screams target. If Fed delivers cuts, we're eyeing $4,300 by year-end. Silver tagged along, up ~1% to $50.50.
USOil (WTI): Demand Dread Drags It Down
Crude got hammered, with WTI settling at $58.05 (-1.34%) amid fresh fears of softening global demand. Holiday travel didn't juice volumes as hoped, and sticky inflation data raised stagflation whispers. Brent mirrored the pain, down ~1.2% to $62.47. This caps a brutal month (-5.31%), with OPEC+ chatter doing little to stem the bleed.
Sniper Insight: Oversold RSI at 28 hints at a bounce, but $57 is key support – lose it and $55 tests loom. Geopolitics could spark a reversal, but for now, shorts rule.
NAS100: Tech's Tentative Rebound
The NASDAQ 100 clawed back to ~24,840 (+0.77% est.), bouncing from 24,600 lows on Fed optimism and Tesla's AI chip hype (up 3%+). Early dips on Nvidia/AMD weakness (both -1-2%) got bought aggressively, with Applied Materials (+2.3%) leading the semis charge. Earnings from Dell and NetApp loom tomorrow – expect volatility.
Sniper Insight: That 24,900 CHOCH we sniped earlier? Nailed it for +195 pips. Structure's bullish above 24,600; target 25,000 if VIX stays sub-20. YTD +28% – AI ain't dead yet.
US30 (Dow): Blue-Chip Boom
The Dow roared +1.40% (663 points!) to ~46,448, its best day since early November. Rate-cut bets lifted cyclicals like GM (+1.8%), while financials rotated in on dip-buying. It outpaced the S&P 500's +0.91% to 6,772, signaling broad risk appetite amid holiday thinness.
Sniper Insight: Momentum's strong – 46,500 resistance next, but overbought stochastics warn of a pullback. Trail longs with 46,000 stops; this rally's got legs into PCE data.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Crypto's Steady Climb
ETH caught the risk-on wave, up 1.89% to $2,953 as Bitcoin's shadow lift pulled alts higher. Low-volume consolidation above $2,900 support held firm, with DeFi flows ticking up on cheaper money hopes. It's mirroring BTC's range but with more upside pop on sentiment flips.
Sniper Insight: Bullish divergence on MACD; $3,000 retest incoming if BTC cracks $88.5K. Watch ETH/BTC ratio for altseason clues – it's coiling.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): King Holds the Line
BTC edged +1.33% to $88,007, defending $87K support but stalling at $88K resistance. Fed dovishness kept the floor intact, but fading momentum (RSI ~55) signals caution – volume's down 20% WoW. Broader crypto cap hit $3.2T, but it's all BTC-driven for now.
Sniper Insight: Tight range play: Long above $87.5K targeting $90K; invalidation at $86.5K. Post-halving bull cycle intact – $95K by Christmas if cuts land.
The Big Picture & Trader Playbook
Today's theme? "Fed put" in full effect – risk assets pumped, dollar and oil dumped. Holiday liquidity amplified moves, but tomorrow's tech earnings and Thursday's PCE could reset the tape. Bull case: Cuts confirm, equities/crypto to new highs. Bear case: Hot data crushes hopes, DXY rebounds to 101.
DYOR – not advice. Data via Trading Economics, Investing.com, and live feeds.
